2015 World League of Football Draft Reviews:
World League of Football draft review: The Third World Division 2015
Greetings fellow WLOFers and welcome to our 2015 series of draft reviews for the World League of Football 2015 draft. We are going to start with the division that spawned our Champion from last season, and also put all 4 of the divisional teams into the playoffs (a first for the WLOF!). We are, once again, changing our preview format for rating our teams. This time, we are taking an aggregate average of the top 16 QB’s WR’s, RB’s, TE’s, K’s, and Defenses and comparing the starters to those positions. For the 2 flex positions, we took an average of the 17th to 35th ranked RB’s and WR’s to get these spots. Then you just figure the projected points (from multiple experts) vs the average and that will give you a plus or minus value for your starting lineup as a whole. This should allow comparisons through different positions and arrive at the best starting lineup. Also, a bench score will be factored in (you do have to start someone for bye weeks and there are also those pesky injuries) to arrive at our experts picks of who will be your Third World Champion. Today, our expert is brought to you by Hotels.com. It is none other than Captain Obvious himself. Take it away Captain!
Thank you Micah. That was a bland introduction. I am Captain Obvious, and I am being paid to speak to you. I do not care about the fantasy results for any of you and I find football to be a violent sport. I would rather be balls deep in Emma Stone right now, but I repulse her. So in order to earn the money I will soon be blowing on crack whores, Quaaludes, and a new waffle iron, I will now begin the review of the Third World division of the World League of Football’s 2015 draft.
There have been some changes to the reviewing process. I would give a much more detailed accounting of this new process, but as they say, “You can teach a dog to shake hands, but they have no idea why they’re doing it.” So in brief, scores are based on the average of the top 16 players at each position for WR1, RB1, TE1, K, DEF, and QB1. Starting scores for WR2, and RB2 are based on the average scores for the 17 -35 players at those positions. Scores in parentheses are WR3, RB3, and TE2. These are based on the average of players 36 – 60 of WR and RB, and 17 – 35 for TE. DEF and K backups are in parentheses but are still based on the top 16 average. So if your WR 2 projects a better total than your WR 1, it is because the starting WR average 45 points more. Also, some positions are skewed due to the elite players. This is most obvious at TE1 with Gronkowski, or the RB1 with the top 5 backs. The starting 8 players (if there
is some nebulousness about who a starter may be the two potentials starters will be averaged together for a single person aggregate score to add to the total. This totaling of the plus and minus will allow a comparison across positions and realize a staring total score. This will be adjusted (only by 10%) by your bench score, which will only include the first people off your bench as backups. There will also be a depth score which can ding your total based on these criteria: [Lack] of a Defensive backup, bye week issues, lack of backup at any position other than Kicker, or an unacceptable backup.
The most competitive division in the WLOF last year was the Third World division. All 4 teams ended up 8 – 5 and made the playoffs. That is not an easy thing to do. This does mean that all 4 teams drafted in the last 8 slots of the draft and should have another competitive season.
As is tradition, we shall start with a review of last year’s World League of Football Superbowl XVII champion the Sudan Tsunami, winning their first WLOF Superbowl. They are led by a scatological fiend and football genius, Jon Ommen. He likes the Cowboys more than he should. Let’s look at his draft picks by round:
Round 1: WR Dez Bryant +35.5
Round 2: RB Justin Forsett -17.3
Round 3: QB Cam Newton +9.6
Round 4: RB Carlos Hyde +14.1
Round 5: TE Jason Witten -5.7
Round 6: WR Anquan Boldin +4.8 (+22.2)
Round 7: WR Roddy White +12.8 (+30.2)
Round 8: WR Eddie Royal (+0.8)
Round 9: QB Ryan Fitzpatrick (-82.2)
Round 10: RB Reggie Bush (+5.1)
Round 11: RB David Cobb (+5.9)
Round 12: K Dan Carpenter +6.5
Round 13: WR Greg Jennings (-6.0)
Round 14: Def COWBOYS -25.5
Round 15: TE Gavin Escobar (-8.1)
This gives us a starting 8 score of 26.0. Since Roddy White projects out better that Anquan Boldin, but White is currently injured, we split the difference between the two and treated the 2nd WR position as a +8.8. It would seem Justin Forsett is a worse RB than Carlos Hyde, but keep in mind, Forsett is being compared to the average starting RB whereas Hyde is being compared to the average starting 2nd RB. The Cowboys defense is clearly the drag on this team. With no backup defense, Jon has done a silly draft thing. The bench factors out to a -4.01 per player. Most of this drag is caused by the disgusting Ryan Fitzpatrick. He is not good. Depth is a -5. There is no back up Defense, and, since Escobar is on the same team as Witten no bye week TE. He is a handcuff TE and that is not very useful. There is not a very acceptable backup QB either. WR and RB are both reasonably deep.
The strength of this team will be its Wide Receivers and running game (including Cam Newton). Newton may be underrated for a yardage league, where he gets 2.5 times the points for his rushing yards verses his passing yards. He will need 400 or more rushing yards to maintain his top 10 QB rating. Losing Kelvin Benjamin will hurt in some respects, but may lead to more QB rushes.
The weakness on this team is Defense and Tight End. The two Cowboys you wanted to have on your team were not these two Cowboys.
Best Pick: Justin Forsett (Round 2). Jon successfully resisted the urge to take a stud QB here and got the last RB in that comparative grouping of RBs before the options really dropped off. He still got a top 10 QB next round.
Worst Pick: With all due respect to taking the COWBOYS defense (What am I saying? There is no respect to taking the COWBOYS defense), Jason Witten (Round 5). Similar value Tight Ends were available 3 rounds later.
Score: +18.99
Projected finish: projected Third World division 2nd place finisher 8 – 5 Playoff team
Now it is time to discuss the Ouagadougou Protesters who are owned and operated by Jason Bowen. There are from the capital city of Burkina Faso. I don’t know where that is. Jason was also 8 – 5 last year and also made the playoffs. He was a World League of Football semi-finalist. He likes the Bears more than he should. I like Jason Bowen. He and I have the same amount of hair on our head. Except that I have a thick beard and he does not. So I should have said we have the same amount of hair on the top of our head. Let us look at his draft. I would try and predict the future for his team, but the future is unpredictable. Yet I am doing this to attempt to predict the future. That is a problem. So the problem at this point is that there is a problem. Jason Bowen’s draft board:
Round 1: WR Demaryius Thomas +40.3
Round 2: WR Calvin Johnson +62.6
Round 3: RB Joseph Randle -71.1
Round 4: RB Andre Ellington +21.1
Round 5: RB Doug Martin -8.9 (+21.3)
Round 6: QB Ryan Tannehill -27.8
Round 7: WR Devin Funchess (-0.7)
Round 8: QB Teddy Bridgewater -51.0 (+48.0)
Round 9: WR Kenny Britt (-25.2)
Round 10: WR Torrey Smith (-18.6)
Round 11: K Mason Crosby +7.5
Round 12: TE Delanie Walker -25.3
Round 13: Def CHARGERS -11.5
Round 14: TE Jacob Tamme (-21.1)
Round 15: RB David Johnson (-19.3)
These numbers indicate a staring score for the Protesters of -4.2. This value I feel is too impacted by the TE position. But it is what the numbers added up to. These numbers are also based on the lower ranking by Ryan Tannehill. Until Tannehill produces the numbers that some experts expect he may be capable of producing, the experts won’t give him those higher numbers on projections. So Tannehill needs to step up this year and exceed those expectations or the numbers the experts are expecting will be correct. That would be great. My life used to be great. It still is really great, but it also used to be great too. The bench subs for this team are quite strong with Bridgewater and Doug Martin being outstanding options, and Funchess being very acceptable. It is a bench score of 12.04. Depth suffers with the lack of a backup Defense and a weaker TE2. It is a -2.
The strength of this team is clearly its Wide Receivers. It has two top 5 receivers which will have to carry the team. Also, there is a strong group of RB2s on this team. It is just that all 3 RBs are RB2s. Potential in Tannehill and Randle are scored too low.
The weakness for this team is found in the lack of an impact Running Back, and the slight disadvantage at Defense, TE, and QB that the Protesters will be facing each week.
Best Pick: Calvin Johnson (Round 2). Could have had Peyton here, or a mid-level RB, but grabbing a 2nd stud wide out picks up points on the field at the WR2 position.
Worst Pick: Joseph Randle (Round 3). Good news, when a RB was need, one was taken. Bad news, it is this RB who does not hold job security. Could have had Brady….
Score: -0.18
Projected Finish: projected Third World division 3rd place team 6 – 7 or 7 – 6 Playoff bubble
We now turn to the Taliban Freedom Haters owned by Mike Norris, who also were 8 – 5. They were the Third World division champions, but they were unable to win in the playoffs. This ended their season before they wanted it ended. They should really try to win more games AFTER they make the playoffs. I think it is important to win while you are young. You do not get as many opportunities to win when you are older. Because you want be around as long. I was once as young as Mike Norris when I was the same age as he is now. Mike likes the Vikings more than he should. Let’s look at the team Mike drafted this year to see if he is following my advice to win now:
Round 1: RB Jeremy Hill -7.1
Round 2: WR Julio Jones +13.9
Round 3: QB Eli Manning -21.8
Round 4: WR DeAndre Hopkins +7.0
Round 5: RB T.J. Yeldon +13.7
Round 6: WR Sammy Watkins +9.6 (+27.0)
Round 7: WR Eric Decker (+6.4)
Round 8: QB Colin Kaepernick -47.8 (+51.2)
Round 9: RB Bishop Sankey (-6.9) (Bishop Stinky)
Round 10: TE Owen Daniels -38.9
Round 11: WR Jeff Janis (-43.0)
Round 12: Def VIKINGS -22.5
Round 13: TE Larry Donnell (-5.3)
Round 14: K Steven Hauschka +1.6
Round 15: RB Denard Robinson (-29.7)
The raw data of the starting lineup is not favorable. This lists as -52.8. Projections indicate that Sammy Watkins is actually a better starter than DeAndre Hopkins, but I don’t think I believe that. So I averaged their numbers. The numbers are still bad. What went wrong? The obvious negatives are for the Tight End and Defensive positions. Is Owen Daniels that bad a starting TE? Experts think so. So we will think so too. Also, Jeremy Hill and Julio Jones are not getting as much of a bump as one might expect. Nor is Eli Manning as a starter. He is the wild card factor here as his numbers will be better than the experts predict if he has better numbers than the experts predict. The sub at QB is Colin Kaepernick who is a very good sub by all standards. Also the WR depth is great with Watkins and Decker. RB is not great. Bishop Stinky will not be an option to play. Robinson is only a handcuff. TE is OK in the sense the backup is not much worse than the starter. Having only the Vikings defense is also bad. This leads to a total of -3 on depth. But it does lead to an impressive bench strength of +14.48.
The strengths of the Freedom Haters is the starting five main positions. The have valid players at both WR’s spots, both RB spots, and at QB. Also at Kicker if you care, but I do not. Good bench strength at every position except RB and Def
The weakness of this team is the lack of that absolute stud player at any position. Julio Jones and Jeremy Hill will need to play as top 5 players at their positions. As above, backup Running Backs and any decent Defense are a concern to Mike Norris and the Taliban fans. They are not a concern to me as I do not care enough to hide my indifference.
Best Pick: Sammy Watkins (Round 6). A great value pick for a 3rd WR. Needed depth since the RB spots are weak on the bench.
Worst Pick: Minnesota Vikings (Round 12). Is this a top 10 Defense? Is it even a top 16 Defense? Packers twice, Lions twice, as well as games with the Broncos, Seahawks and Giants. That is 7 weeks in the season that no alternate defense can help with…
Score: -48.56
Projected Finish: project Third World division 4th place finisher 5 – 8 not a playoff team
Our final stop on the reviewing of the Third World division teams is in Nairobi where the Nairobi Pride, owned by Blake Eddleman, reside. The Pride were also, 8 – 5 this season and finished in 3rd place due to the tiebreaker. It was an opportunity for Blake to receive his first World League of Football playoff win, but it did not happen. Since Blake has never told me what team he likes, I don’t know which team Blake likes too much. He does like to live every day as if it is his last. Living every day like it is your last is financially reckless and irresponsible. I prefer to live every day as if the next day is tomorrow. Blake’s team:
Round 1: RB Matt Forte +31.5
Round 2: QB Peyton Manning +36.6
Round 3: WR Alshon Jeffery -11.7
Round 4: WR Andre Johnson +16.6
Round 5: RB Tevin Coleman -8.5
Round 6: WR Larry Fitzgerald (-4.2)
Round 7: TE Dwayne Allen -9.3
Round 8: QB Alex Smith (+38.6)
Round 9: Def RAMS +11.5
Round 10: RB Brandon Oliver (-30.0)
Round 11: WR Cordarrelle Patterson (-27.8)
Round 12: K Stephen Gostkowski +5.3
Round 13: TE Jordan Reed (+5.3)
Round 14: RB Jerick McKinnon (-38.3)
Round 15: WR Ty Montgomery (-18.8)
This team found value in each of their first 5 picks. Forte as the 8th pick, Manning as the 25th, Jefferies with the 41st pick (he was on average the 24th pick in most expert drafts!), Andre Johnson at the 56th pick, and Coleman as a RB2 in the 5th round. Getting off to that solid a draft has led to the large positive values and the high stud factor (3 very solid players, one at each major position) that make this team formidable. Their starter score is a robust +72.0. The bench strength is meh. Alex Smith is an excellent backup for QB, and Larry Fitzgerald is the best Fitzgerald to have in the league, and makes an OK WR3. Jordan Reed is also a positive TE2 if he is healthy. RB is a weak spot as Coleman is in a time share on the Browns, and Oliver and McKinnon are only useful in injury scenarios. And again, while the Rams defense is the best drafted defense in this division by far, no backup means two games against the Seahawks, in division, and games against the Steelers, Packers, Bengals, and Lions. Those will not be advantage defensive matchups. Bench score is a +2.43 but the depth score here is a -4.
Strength for this team lies in the depth at the starting positions, as Nairobi will match up at starter as well as any team in this division. Good backup QB as well.
Weaknesses that could derail the Pride include any lengthy injuries to starters and no RB backups or defensive back up.
Best Pick: Peyton Manning (Round 2), Blake kept finding value at every pick through the first 5 rounds. But getting a potential big fantasy impact player with the 25th pick, and getting Manning as the 5th QB off the board is a flat out steal.
Worst Pick: Brandon Oliver (Round 10). Not that you find huge value in round 10, but there were far more capable backups or even better RB’s than Oliver. This is the RB3 for the Pride and he may not be usable.
Score: +66.79
Projected Finish: PROJECTED THIRD WORLD DIVISION WINNER! 9 – 4 record Playoff team
I have now finished my review for the Third World division of the World League of Football, 2015. I am now looking for my check. Although I am now thinking they will pay me by direct deposit, which has ruined my current plan of hitting up the guy on the corner for a fix. I don’t think he takes Discover. I am leaving now, as you don’t need me anymore.
Thanks Captain Obvious for that review. We will post the next review hopefully in the next few days. Until then, good luck to all are owners!
Office of the Sub Commissioner of the World League of Football
