2016 European Division Review

Greeting fellow World League of Footballers and welcome to the first in our four-part series of the 2016 draft review. We will start with the division that gave us last year’s champion, the Chely’abinsk Isotopes from the European division. This year, we brought in expert David Dodds to give us his rating of our teams and a percentage breakdown in making the playoffs for each team. We will cross that with our own in house expert panel that will generate a WLOF number and predict the outcome of the regular season for each division. This year, to review the European division we have brought in Randy Quaid to give us his expertise on the European division of the World League of Football for 2016. Take it away Randy!

Ah, thank you Micah for that introduction, and it is great to be here. Well it is great to be anywhere other than the woods where my wife Avi and I have been living. After getting gutted financially by the “Star Whackers” that took us down, we have really been struggling to make ends meet. I probably should have tried to do Independence Day 2. [Micah] Randy, didn’t your character die in Independence Day? [Quaid] So did that longhaired Brent Spiner dude and they brought him back! The Star Whackers have it out for us! That reminds me, there is so much space in this building. Do you thank Avi and I could just crash here for a couple of days or months? [Micah] Uh, well, Webber’s office is unlocked so… [Quaid] That’s perfect! Thanks! [Micah] I really didn’t say you could stay there, I was thinking you could grab a soda out of his fridge and then be on your way or something,…. [Quaid] No, no, that is perfect! Don’t worry, we can shower using his sink! That’s just wonderful! OK, let’s start the review!

I will begin with the 2015 Super Bowl XVIII champion, the Chely’abinsk Isotopes and Jason

Webber! I had a chance to spend some time with him near his Dacha in the mountains near Chelyabinsk:

His final roster ended with Gurley (2nd pick this year), Beckham (7th pick), Robinson (17th pick), Palmer (30th pick), and Eifert (80th pick), so it is easy to see why this team ran off 10 out of 11 games to end the season. After a 17 year absence in the winner’s circle, can Webber capture lightning in a bottle in back to back seasons? Here is David Dodd’s opinion. I turn it over to David:

Wow, thanks Randy! A pleasure to meet you! I just thought you would not… smell as you do. Here is my assessment of the Isotopes:

Here is the drafted roster for the ISOTOPES:

QB: Andrew Luck, Joe Flacco

RB: Jeremy Hill, Ameer Abdullah, Jay Ajayi

WR: Allen Robinson, Donte Moncrief, Kevin White, Rishard Matthews, Mohamed Sanu

TE: Tyler Eifert, Vance McDonald

PK: Josh Lambo

TD: Philadelphia Eagles, New York Giants

I find that Quarterback and Receiver are strengths for this team. Running back is the noticeable weakness. Webber definitely has got a good team here, but I would feel better if I knew Webber was committed to keeping an eye out for the 2016 version of last season’s David Johnson, or 2014’s C.J. Anderson.

Players I particularly like that were taken ahead of their projected draft slots are Ameer Abdullah, Rishard Matthews, Vance McDonald, Joe Flacco, and Kevin White. Even though Webber reached a bit for Andrew Luck, I like Luck to have a bounce back season, and have him ranked as the #3 QB in the NFL. So QB is outstanding with Flacco being a quality backup. RB is a bit week as Jeremy Hill is ranked #21 at his position so is below the line for a quality number one RB. Abdullah is a plus second RB. Wide Receiver is solid with Allen Robinson ranked as our #6 WR and Donte Mocrief is a top choice as a second WR. White, Matthews, and Sanu were all good value where they were selected. TE is OK with Tyler Eifert being ranked as my #11 TE. I will acknowledge some experts have him ranked as a top 5 TE, but those people are assuming another year like last year. I do see a drop off with Eifert. Vance McDonald is a solid backup. We don’t think Josh Lambo is starter quality for the WLOF. Webber will need to keep a sharp eye on the waiver wire. The Eagles Defense is probably not a difference maker so use of two defenses is wise. With good in season management, I give the Isotopes a 69% chance of making the playoffs in the WLOF, and a 53% chance of winning the European division. Back to Randy!

Well David, you may be right about Luck, but this whole division is awash in quality quarterbacking! Aaron Rodgers, Cam Newton, and Eli Manning all are flinging the pill in the European division! So Luck is may be the third rated QB in the NFL this year, but he is also the third rated QB in the European division this year! This bleeds over to the Wide Receiver where Moncrief’s value will directly depend on Luck. This can be good, or it can be suck! But if Moncrief is good, this is a nice pair of receivers with some decent backup coverage in White and Matthews. Jeremy Hill is a crapshoot. He did have 11 TD’s last year, but his stats dipped badly in pretty much every other category. He had his YAC drop 1.5 yards per carry, he gained 330 fewer yards, and he had, count ‘em, zero 100 yard games. Splitting carries with Giovani Bernard, and losing run happy offensive coordinator Hue Jackson and bringing in pass happy coordinator Ken Zampese (ex QB coach under Mike Martz) give Hill some pretty wide variance in prognosticating his performance this season. Abdullah does have upside with Bell gone from Detroit, but Ajayi’s stat line will depend on when Arian Foster gets his season ending injury. Eifert won’t repeat 13 TD’s like last year if for no other reason than he had missed 19 games in his three seasons including 3 last year during the week 13 – 16 playoffs. McDonald is needed to keep things backed up. Eagles and Giants are two defenses. JOSH LAMBO??? Seriously, you have the last pick in the draft, and you bot a worthless kicker?

OK, let’s get to the guts of it:

Best Pick: Allan Robinson 2nd round – Solid top flight receiver, better ceiling and floor then Romo-less Dez

Draft Gaffe: Mohamed Sanu 10th round – (thought I was going to say Lambo? Kickers are not worth considering as gaffes!) Not that Sanu was not talent, but Isaiah Crowell, Spencer Ware, DeAndre Washington, or Devontae Booker would have been available. Sanu will not see the field baring disaster, whereas any of these guys are probably going to see as much if not more touches than Ajayi (assuming Foster will eventually get injured, Ajayi is still a nice little lottery ticket). RB was the weak spot, not WR at this point. Rishard Matthews was a better value and receiver in round 13 anyway!

WLOF Number: 8.37 (bonus for bench, slight ding for kicker)

Prediction: Projected Divisional winner, European Division WLOF Projected record: 8 – 5

Our next customer is last year’s European Division champion in his first year as an owner in the WLOF, Tedd Lucht and the Dublin Dark Knights. Tedd comes into his second season with the Dublin fan base giddy with anticipation on the kind of team their new owner is capable of assembling. The draft started out the same as last year with Tedd grabbing Aaron Rodgers in the first round, but then it took a turn down a darker path, one that has not been tread upon for quite some time. It is as if Tedd forgot what got him to the playoffs last year….

And now, here is David Dodds again with his analysis:

Randy, the Dark Knights drafted squad is as follows:

QB: Aaron Rodgers

RB: Carlos Hyde, Danny Woodhead, Tevin Coleman, Cameron Artis-Payne, Mike Gillislee

WR: Sterling Shepard, DeVante Parker, Travis Benjamin

TE: Greg Olsen, Jordan Reed

PK: Chris Boswell, Josh Brown

TD: Carolina Panthers, Cincinnati Bengals

Post draft Mike Gillislee had to be dropped as it was illegal to carry 5 running backs, and this was not caught until post draft. The starting lineup here is respectable, but the lack of depth is a serious problem. Avoiding the injury bug is critical for success for the Dark Knights. Players we particularly like on this team include Chris Boswell and the Panthers defense. I have both these guys/team ranked ahead of where they are typically being drafted. You don’t need me to tell you this, but QB is rock solid with Rodgers. Too bad there is no back up. Scratch that week. He gives you a 0.8 point advantage per week over other QB’s you will face. Carlos Hyde is our #15 ranked RB so he is at best passable as a RB 1, he doesn’t thrill me. Same for Danny Woodhead at RB 2. He was good value where he was picked, but he is a low end RB 2 since the WLOF is not a PPR league. Tevin Coleman is a fine RB 3 and screws the Devonta Freeman owner, but Cameron Artis-Payne is a well below average RB 4 as veteran fullback Mike Tolbert is the actual backup for Jonathan Stewart. Sterling Shepard is ranked #35 on my WR board, (yes, ahead of DeVante Parker), so a very weak WR 1. Parker is an even weaker WR 2 but about the same as Shepard in targets. Travis Benjamin is a nice find for WR 3 and will be usable. TE is the key for this team. Olsen and Reed rank respectively #3 and #4 on my TE list (Reed is lower due to injury risk) but if both project out, they should give Tedd 900 yards and 6 to 9 TD’s each which is better than any of Dublin’s wide receivers. I see a clear 2 TE strategy to be competitive for Dublin. Chris Brown is an above average kicker and I rate the Panthers the #1 defense in the NFL. Lack of depth on the bench, weaknesses and lack of consistency at the RB and WR positions and no backup for Rodgers bye week are why I am rating the Dark Knights playoff chances so low. They will need to hit it big on the waiver wire or just live a charmed life to make a playoff run this year. I give the Dark Knights a 29% chance of making the playoffs and a 7% chance of repeating as European Division champs. Randy, back over to you.

Wow, that is a nice way of being quite harsh David. But truth speaks to truth! The old Ommen two TE set is back!

Rodgers, Reed, Olson, and Hyde do put 4 solid starters out there, but it is at best a third WR out there as your starting WR, and Danny Woodhead or an equally bad WR for your last starter. Sterling Shepard has yet to take a regular season NFL snap. Parker has upside in Gase’s new offense, but he has been a training camp and pre-season disappointment so far. With no bench to speak of (I do like Travis Benjamin as a possible sleeper) and no backup to Rodgers too may bye week issues will kill Dublin this year by thousands of tiny pin pricks. To my heart rending predictions!

Best Pick: Danny Woodhead 5th round – RB was at critical mass and this may have saved enough players to put in a starting lineup. With little WR talent two RB’s that get 10 plus touches is a must and Woodhead was all that was out there. Too bad this is not a PPR league.

Draft Gaffe: Caros Hyde 2nd round – draft went off the rails here. RB was already going to be an issue, but taking Hyde instead of Mark Ingram, Eddie Lacy, C.J. Anderson, Doug Martin, or a plethora of top 10 WR meant weakness at two positions which was amplified by picks 3 and 4 at TE.

WLOF Number: 5.46 (big ding for lack of bench, slight uptick for kicker and good backup Defense)

Prediction: Projected 4th place, European Division WLOF Projected record: 4 – 9

Our next victim just missed the playoffs in the final week, but made a great run to win his first Toilet Bowl and secure the first pick in the 2016 WLOF draft. Doug Cottle and the St. Mihiel Tough Ombres drafted Cardinal RB David Johnson with their first pick, befuddling the experts who had Antonio Brown pegged as Steeler fan Cottle’s first selection. But time has proven Doug possibly quite wise as many experts have moved from Brown or Gurley as the #1 pick to Johnson, and many owners drafting in many leagues now back that up. For a closer look between the numbers, here is David Dodds again. David?

Thanks again Randy! Can’t believe Randy Quaid is throwing it to me! Wowzers! OK, here is the Tough Ombre roster:

QB: Eli Manning

RB: David Johnson, Latavius Murray, Shane Vereen, Christine Michael

WR: Jarvis Landry, Devin Funchess, Robert Woods, Mike Wallace

TE: Coby Fleener, Julius Thomas, Austin Seferian-Jenkins

PK: Mason Crosby, Brandon McManus

TD: Green Bay Packers

I like the old school look to this team as the Running Back position is the strength of this team unlock the rest of the European division teams, which are emphasizing QB more. Because RB is so sought after, a

team constructed as this team is always has a decent chance of making the playoffs. TE is also a plus here, but your QB starter, while good, has no back-up and pales to the rest of your division. WR is a bit of a mess. But it is a much easier position to find late season gems to bolster your WR corps. I do like Doug’s picks of Latavius Murry, and Crosby or McManus but only one kicker was necessary. I have rated Eli Manning as the #7 QB in the NFL so Doug will be better than average here, even though he has no backup. David Johnson is my #2 RB and he gives you a 1.1 points per game advantage over the normal RB 1. Having Latavius Murray as a RB 2 is a huge advantage as he is my #12 RB, so could work as an RB 1! Shane Vereen is a passable RB 3 that is usable for bye weeks and Christine Michael is a lottery ticket that may pay off! The Thomas Rawls owner is probably kicking himself about not grabbing Michael. You can’t be that strong somewhere without creating a weakness elsewhere. That will be at WR. Jarvis Landry is ranked as my #18 WR so just a notch below a true WR 1, and Devin Funchess is a disaster as a WR 2. Robert Woods also figures to be a bit iffy as a RB 3. Mike Wallace is a very below average WR 4, which is saying something. TE is much better with Coby Fleener as my #7 TE on the board, and Julius Thomas is a low end TE 1 so he may even be usable for flex options. Austin Seferian-Jenkins is the best TE 3 in the league, but there are not too many TE 3s that were drafted. With either Crosby or McManus, Doug is above average at K, so with both he is in kicker heaven. The Packers are probably not a difference maker on Defense, but they should be OK. I rate the chances of making the playoffs for the St. Mihiel Tough Ombres as 49% with a 19% chance of winning the WLOF European Division. And I throw it back to you Randy!

Well David, the thing that jumps out at me is the pick of Eli Manning in the 2nd round. With a wraparound pick for rounds 2 and 3, there would be no guarantee that Manning would be there at the end of round 4, even though draft position says he would be, but wide outs like Keenan Allen, Alshon Jeffery, T.Y. Hilton, Mike Evans, and Amari Cooper were all available here. Trade Manning for one of these and then take Blake Bortles, or David Carr, or Kirk Cousins, or even Jameis Winston and this team is much better off. Maybe even a favorite! Wait, getting a text, uh oh. Someone else doesn’t like what Doug did…

See?!?! Doug, do you see what you have done!?!? The Star Whackers are going to come after me because of you! YOU AND YOUR ELI MANNING PICK! Damnit! I am going to have to go on the lamb again because of you! I predict this and we have to speed this up!

Best Pick: Latvius Murray 3rd round – Getting a RB 1 in the 3rd round to be your RB 2 is always a great thing! Best and clearest value on the board unless you were going WR.

Draft Gaffe: Eli Manning 2nd round – Not saying taking a top 10 QB is bad, but it was early to grab him. And too many studs were still out there. The difference between Eli and the about mentioned QB’s had best be 300 to 400 yards and 3 to 4 TD’s to make this pick justifiable. Otherwise this is where one can point to see where everything went wrong.

WLOF Number: 6.17 (Two top 10 kickers? Drop one and somebody gets a gift! And Funchess or Woods as a WR 2 is a problem (#50 and #53 WR respectively))

Prediction: Projected 3rd place, European Division WLOF Projected record: 6 - 7

And now, for the final phase of our journey through the World League of Football European division. We come to the newest owner in the WLOF, Alex Smith and, for now, Good German Beer. Rumors have been swirling this week of a possible name change and move for the Good Beer. Now that Tim Richards is off enjoying his retirement on a bull seaman farm, Alex is considering a move that may be announced later this week! For now, we will still refer to them as Germany. They have a new owner that is reintroducing an old hobbled fiend. Or friend. He is a Packer so I will stick with fiend…

And now David Dodds one last time with his take on Good German Beer. Doddsie?

Did you hear that? Randy Quaid has a nickname for me! Doddsie! Oh boy is this great! OK, keep it together David. So. For Good German Beer, here is the roster for now:

QB: Cam Newton, Blaine Gabbert, Jared Goff
RB: Jeremy Langford, DeAngelo Williams, Andre Williams
WR: Jordy Nelson, Amari Cooper, Josh Gordon, Kenny Britt, Will Fuller
TE: Delanie Walker
PK: Robbie Gould
TD: Kansas City Chiefs, Miami Dolphins

Clearly QB is in solid shape, and the wide receiver position is locked down solid. The RB position, well, it is a bit wanting. I have Cam Newton as the #1 QB on the board. He gives Good German Beer a 1.2 points per week advantage over the average QB start. Gabbert and Goff just have to fill in for one game, and I show Gabberts matchup on the Newton bye week to be neutral. Jeremy Langford (cough, HOMER, cough) is my #26 ranked RB so I don’t see him as being RB 1 worthy. DeAngelo Williams will be fine for 3 weeks as a RB 2. Then he falls off the map. Andre Williams is my #82 RB. His strong preseason has confused his picture, so he may end up being the #2 Giants RB behind Jennings, or he may not make the 53-man roster. He is probably a flyer at best, and a poor excuse for a RB 3 right now. WR is a different story. While I have Jordy Nelson as the #10 WR, so a lower WR 1, this paired with Amari Cooper, my #13 WR makes an electric pairing. Throw in the potential of Josh Gordon as your WR 3 with high WR 2 value and this may solve some of the RB issues. Will Fuller will be lightly used if at all, and Kenny Britt is just a big, whut? TE is in good hands with Delanie Walker as my #6 TE. The lack of a backup is concerning however. K is just a hot mess. Don’t draft too many Bears! That should be put on a bumper sticker! With Gould cut, it is fun with the waiver wire for Alex! Maybe Josh Lambo is available. We like the potential matchup production between the Chiefs and Dolphins for Alex. I rate the chances of making the WLOF playoffs at 53% for Good German Beer and the odds of winning the WLOF European division at 21%. And with one last flourish, back to you Randy! Wheeee!

The Star Whackers are coming and I gotta get this done! Sure, sure, sure, Newton, Nelson, Cooper are a great three first picks, but you have to address RB with your next few picks! Jeremy Langford doesn't cut it. And no Jordan Howard to handcuff? And Kenny Britt? Kenny sonofabitch Britt?

Find a decent kicker, hit the waiver wire when Le'Veon Bell comes back and pray. If things fall right, this team with any kind of decent RB could do some damage.

Best Pick: Josh Gordon 6th round – This may be the make or break pick for Alex. If it pans out, he may have saved his RB 2 hole with a hail mary 3rd WR.

Draft Gaffe: Will Fuller 9th round and Andre Williams 10th round – Rarely does a round 9 and 10 pick resonate so crisply! DeAngelo Williams has an upside with LeVeon Bell always a potential injury threat. But there is little upside and no backup for RB here! Fuller may draw value as the 4th WR, but Isiaha Crowell, T.J. Yeldon, or Tevin Colman would have been a nice name to call out here. Lack of RB depth may be the nadir of this team.

WLOF Number: 7.28 (Ding for lack of a kicker. Solvable, but ew.)

Prediction: Projected 2nd place, European Division WLOF Projected record: 7 - 6

OK, I was going to hang around for a while, but I think I had better collect Avi from that office you said was unlocked. That Webber guy? Tell him I’m sorry I dropped a shit on his desk, but I had to unleash a brown growler. Tell him it was my way of honoring our bond with nature! It is a sign of good luck! Adios Micah! And vote Trump! Hillary is trying to kill me you know!

Thanks Randy. That was part 1 of our series on the post draft reviews. Tune in for our next iteration, the Pacific Rim division. Until then, keep your office doors locked! And can we get housekeeping to Webber’s office? We have a browntown alert!